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Is Geneva of 2013 the new Munich of 1938? Why Israel Has Reason to be Worried.

Is Geneva of 2013 the new Munich of 1938?


Hitler and Chamberlain at Munich 1938

Hitler and Chamberlain at Munich 1938

The news that the “Great Powers” of the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany have reached an agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran over Iran’s controversial nuclear program has been greeted with immense skepticism among Iran’s foes.

Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf States are very concerned about the potential for Iran to develop nuclear weapons.  They do not trust the Iranians, and increasingly, they do not trust the Obama Adminstration to follow through with either enforcing the agreement (which they believe is too weak anyway), or to follow through with punishing Iran if Tehran violates the agreement.


Critics of agreement reached in Geneva point to several factors to justify their concerns.  The U.S. made a lot of noise over North Korea’s nuclear  development, yet did nothing to halt the North Koreans from growing their nuclear capabilities.  Today, North Korea is a nuclear-armed state.  While that is not Obama’s fault, critics point the the use of chemical weapons by Syria and the “red-line” threat made by President Obama.  Syria crossed that red line by using chemical weapons to kill Syrian civilians.  Despite rather explicit warnings, the Obama Administration did nothing substantive to punish the Assad regime.  An agreement was reached whereby Syria said they would divest themselves of the chemical weapons, but many critics, including the Israelis, expect Syria to not follow through and surrender all of their weapons.  With this example, it is no wonder that those that know the Iranians best, the Israelis and Saudis, do not believe that the U.S. will do anything to enforce the Geneva agreement if/when Iran cheats on their end of the bargain.

Geneva 2013 Negotiators

Geneva 2013 Negotiators

While President Obama and his Secretary of State, John Kerry, believe they have averted war, as they did with the Syrian crisis earlier this year, what they have really done is made an attack on Iran by Israel, with possible aid from the Saudis and others, much more likely.  Israelis often use the lessons of history related to the Nazi regime, the Holocaust, and World War Two to explain their extreme reluctance to trust others, and especially not to trust those who constantly threaten them with destruction.  In 1938, Hitler wanted to annex part of Czechoslovakia, and was threatening war to get what he wanted.  The Great Powers of that time, Britain, France, and Italy, gathered with Hitler in Munich to discuss the crisis.  Wary of war, the British and French agreed to a deal with Hitler that literally gave away part of Czechoslovakia to the Nazis.  The Czechoslovaks had not been invited to the Munich conference.  Their fate was decided by others.  By the time the actual shooting war in Europe began in September, 1939, Hitler had already reneged on the Munich Agreement and had seized the rest of Czechoslovakia, in partnership with other Czech neighbors.  Britain and France did nothing to aid the Czechs and Slovaks from being dismembered.  With the annexation and occupation of Czechoslovakia, the Holocaust began in that sad country.  With lessons like this in their memory, Israel has good reason to neither trust the intentions of the Iranians, nor to trust the promises of the “Great Powers.”


Similar to the appeasement of Hitler by the British and French in Munich in 1938, the appeasement of the Iranians at Geneva in 2013 will lead to a greater chance of war in the near future.  Israel looks to the lessons of history and to the lessons of believing President Obama at his word.  Neither of these examples provides Israel any reason to expect a good outcome.  The engines of war are warming up.  This will not end well for anyone.

Crisis in Korea Escalates as War Games Begin

The escalating crisis in Korea is summarized at http://www.historyguy.com/korean_crisis_2010.htm

While the the fighting of Korean War of 1950-1953 ended with an armistice nearly 60 years ago, North and South Korea are still technically at war. Their ongoing hostilities have resulted in many incidents of violence over the years, with two particular incidents in 2010 pushing the two Koreas (and their allies), close to the brink of war. Those incidents of violence between North and South Korea in 2010, were the recent attacks on a South Korean warship and the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong.  The  details on these two incidents, as well as the events of 2009 that led up to the current crisis and the Yeonpyeong Island naval battle of 2002 are at http://www.historyguy.com/korean_crisis_2010.htm

South Korean Island Attacked By Communist North Korea

South Korean Island Attacked By Communist North Korea

Israel-Iran War Draws Closer

On August 21, 2010, Iran, with Russian aid, began inserting the fuel rods into the Bushehr reactor. Some analysts believed that Israel would not risk an attack after August 21 for because of the risk of serious nuclear contamination throughout the Gulf region if the reactor were to be destroyed. However, other analysts see evidence of war preparations by Israel, Syria, and Iran. Clues these analysts see include:
–Ongoing publicity and concern in Israel over the Gallant Scandal, which some Arab sources see as a smokescreen to deflect attention away from war preparations by Israel.
–The presence of Iranian Revolutionary Guards chief Gen. Mohamed Ali Jafari in Damascus, apparantly for discussions on coordinating Syrian, Hezbollah, and Iranian military responses to an Israeli strike.
–Statements made by Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas saying that direct peace talks with Israel were not in the likely because “a big military surprise awaits the Middle East.”

See also: http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Iran Reactor: Will Israel Attack the Bushehr Reactor?

Russian sources associated with that nation’s assistance program with Iran’s nuclear program announced that by August 21, 2010, the fuel rods necessary to power the Bushehr nuclear reactor will be installed. Some analysts, such as John Bolton, former
U.S. ambassador to the U.N., believe that announcement creates a deadline by which Israel will attack the
Bushehr reactor. According to Bolton, an Israeli strike at the Iranian reactor must come before the nuclear
material is installed, otherwise, an attack could spread radioactive material throughout parts of the Middle East.

Also, in August, 2010, an article was published by The Atlantic magazine which presents facts and opinions on the possibility of an Israeli strike at Iran. The Atlantic article concludes that there is a 50 percent likelihood that Israel will strike the Iranian nuclear program by July, 2011.

See also:  http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Korean Tensions Increase Over South Korean Ship Attack by North Korea

Korean tensions increase over South Korean ship attack by North Korea. The U.S. has 28,500 troops defending South Korea and a treaty obligation to aid the South in the event of war with North Korea.  This one could get very, very, bad!  North Korea’s military capabilities, especially with their active nuclear weapons arsenal, make the worries over Iran’s nukes look like a tempest at a tea party (no pun intended!)

Iran War Creeping Upon Us

The world is slowly creeping toward the long-awaited and long-feared Iran War.  What is this ‘Iran War?”  At some point, Iran will be attacked, most likely by Israel, perhaps less likely by the United States or some coalition of Western powers.  But the ongoing concerns regarding Iran’s continued nuclear weapons development and the collapse of any reasonable diplomatic scenarios will lead Israel’s leadership with the belief that they have no choice but to strike the Islamic Republic of Iran before they can attack Israel with the nuclear weapons Iran is developing.

Two recent developments in particular shows that Israel is growing increasingly concerned.  First, the Israeli cabinet decided to fund a program to provide gas masks to all Israelis.  This is an obvious preparation for the possibility of missile attacks on Israel from Iran and/or Iranian allies Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria.

Second, on January 12, 2010, a leading Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated by a remote-controlled bomb in Tehran.  It is widely assumed that Israel is behind this killing in an apparent attempt to delay the Iranian nuclear program. 

See also: http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Israeli Mossad Hacked Syrian Computer Prior to Airstrike

Mossad Hacked Syrian Official’s Computer Before Bombing Mysterious Nuclear Facility

 From Wired

November 3, 2009

Agents of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service hacked into the computer of a senior Syrian government official a year before Israel bombed a facility in Syria in 2007, according to Der Spiegel.

The intelligence agents planted a Trojan horse on the official’s computer in late 2006 while he was staying at a hotel in the Kensington district of London, the German newspaper reported Monday in an extensive account of the bombing attack.

The official reportedly left his computer in his hotel room when he went out, making it easy for agents to install the malware that siphoned files from the laptop. The files contained construction plans for the Al Kabir complex in eastern Syria — said to be an illicit nuclear facility — as well as letters and hundreds of detailed photos showing the complex at various stages of construction.

At the beginning — probably in 2002, although the material was undated — the construction site looked like a treehouse on stilts, complete with suspicious-looking pipes leading to a pumping station at the Euphrates. Later photos show concrete piers and roofs, which apparently had only one function: to modify the building so that it would look unsuspicious from above. In the end, the whole thing looked as if a shoebox had been placed over something in an attempt to conceal it. But photos from the interior revealed that what was going on at the site was in fact probably work on fissile material.

Early in the morning of September 6, 2007, Israeli fighter jets bombed the complex, located in the desert near the Euphrates river about 80 miles from the Iraq border. The attack, dubbed “Operation Orchard,” seemed to come out of nowhere and was marked by a resounding silence from both Israel and the United States afterward.

Israel claimed the incident never occurred. The United States claimed ignorance, but a State Department official suggested the target was nuclear equipment obtained by “secret suppliers.”

The Syrians were said to have been building the reactor with help from North Korea. The Israeli military’s intelligence unit, known as 8200, was reportedly tipped off to this by the U.S. National Security Agency, which intercepted conversations between Syrian officials at the reactor and North Koreans.

Israel’s concern about the facility really kicked into gear when it discovered that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad traveled to Syria in 2006, according to der Spiegel. The paper alleges that Ahmadinejad promised the Syrians more than $1 billion to hasten their progress.

In early 2007, Iran’s former deputy Minister of Defense defected to Turkey and told the CIA that Iran was funding a top-secret nuclear facility in Syria in conjunction with North Korea. Days before the Israeli attack on Al Kabir, a ship from North Korea arrived in Syria loaded with uranium materials, according to the Mossad.

Israel’s attack on the facility commenced late in the evening of September 5, when 10 Israeli jets departed from a base in Northern Israel around 11 p.m. and headed west over the Mediterranean. Seven of them turned east to Syria, flying low, and took out a radar station with their missiles. About 20 minutes later they released their bombs on Al Kabir.

Afterward, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reportedly sent a message to Syria through Turkey saying no further hostilities were planned.

Israel, Olmert said, did not want to play up the incident and was still interested in making peace with Damascus. He added that if Assad chose not to draw attention to the Israeli strike, he would do the same.

In this way, a deafening silence about the mysterious event in the desert began. Nevertheless, the story did not end there, because there were many who chose to shed light on the incident — and others who were intent on exacting revenge.

Syrian President Bashar Assad maintains that the facility was a conventional military installation. But Der Spiegel reports that in June 2008, a team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency analyzed soil at Al Kabir taken after the bombing and found traces of uranium that were “of a type not included in Syria’s declared inventory of nuclear material.” Assad says the Israelis dropped the samples from the air when they bombed the facility in order to frame Syria.

North Korea Launches First Missiles Since July

North Korea launched five short-range missiles into the sea and declared a “no-sail zone” for the week of October 12.  The missile launches came as South Korea called for more talks on the Korean Nuclear Issue.

See also:



Iran War Scenarios Grow

The news out of the Pittsburgh G-20 Summit about the hitherto secret Iranian nuclear facility, coupled with Iranian missile tests near the Yom Kippur Jewish holiday raise the fears of a Western Powers/Israeli pre-emptive attack on Iran.

See http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm for more information and links.